Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Morning Must Reads: Austerity Hurts and the Sands in Bethlehem Has A Union But No Contract!

On Friday, we got a disappointing jobs report for May in which unemployment ticked up slightly and non-farm payroll growth came in below 100,000 jobs. The volatility of the numbers may reflect unseasonably warm winter weather rather than a fundamental slowdown in the economy. That said, the economy continues to grow at a pace too slow to bring down the unemployment rate quickly.

The Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Maria Panaritis has a biting commentary today on the impact of economic austerity on Pennsylvania schools.

Morning Must Reads: Nation of Inequality, Keynes Was Right? & Lancaster's Dirty Air

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has an editorial this morning highlighting the "festering problem" of exorbitant CEO pay.

Morning Must Reads: Remembering the Accounting Scandals, Bernanke vs. Plosser and Health Care Reform Art and Success!

The Harrisburg Patriot-News has a somewhat nostalgic look at the accounting scandal at the cable company Adelphia. 

In a study of contrasts, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser both gave speeches on Monday. Bernanke's talk focused sharply on the poor performance of the labor market while Plosser voiced again his concern that Central Banks have done too much to aid in the recovery.

Morning Must Reads: Government Spending, Top Incomes and adultBasic

Paul Krugman this morning caps off a series of blog posts over the last week with a column comparing government spending in the recovery following the deep 1981 recession and government spending in the recovery following the 2007 recession. The bottom line: the employment situation now would have been much better if the federal government had done more to provide aid to state and local governments.

Third and State This Week: PA Budget Summit, Revenue Update and Pressure on Food Programs

This week, we blogged about our 2012 Pennsylvania Budget Summit, the state's revenue performance in January, programs that serve the poor coming under increasing pressure, and more.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

  • On the state budget, Michael Wood wrote that Pennsylvania's revenue performance in January offered some hope with General Fund collections coming in close to estimate, although corporate taxes continue to lag. Chris Lilienthal shared resources from the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center's 2012 Budget Summit this week and a Fox 43 news report on it.
  • In the Morning Must Reads this week, Mark Price blogged about news reports on soup kitchens and self sufficiency programs coming under pressure (as well as a new effort to identify the public health impacts of Marcellus Shale development); rising demand for Meals On Wheels in Reading and fines for a Hershey Co. subcontractor; and a look at policies in Europe and here at home that Paul Krugman has dubbed the "Pain Caucus."

More blog posts next week. Keep us bookmarked and join the conversation!

Morning Must Reads:The Pain Caucus in Europe and Pennsylvania

Paul Krugman leads off this morning with a review of the havoc created in Europe and here at home by what he calls the Pain Caucus.

Morning Must Reads: Unemployment Benefits Extended, Prevailing Wage Change Stalls and Running Government Like a Business

What a difference an election year makes. Last year was full of pointless brinksmanship over federal policy issues that will take several decades to solve. Those battles at times looked like they threatened the near term health of the economy. 

The New Year is shaping up to be very different. The New York Times reports this morning that a deal has been struck to extend the payroll tax reduction and extended unemployment benefits through the end of the year. Tentatively, it looks as if efforts to weaken the unemployment insurance system have been blocked. Both the payroll tax reduction and extended unemployment benefits were set to expire at the end of February, and the failure to extend them was on most economists' lists of things that could weaken the economy in 2012.

A Harrisburg Rooster Takes Credit For The Sunrise

A recent tweet (see above) from our good friends over at the Commonwealth Foundation highlights that private-sector job growth in 2011 was the strongest in Pennsylvania since 1999 and links that outcome to state tax and spending policy.

The figure below plots the 12-month moving average of private-sector payrolls in Pennsylvania since 1990. What you will notice about the figure is that in the period following a recession (the areas shaded gray*) private-sector payrolls expand. That's what is known in macroeconomics as an expansion; it's been a characteristic of every business cycle on record since 1854. Given where we are in the business cycle, to link private-sector job growth to 2011 state tax and spending policy is like the rooster taking credit for the sunrise.

Morning Must Reads: The Payroll Tax Cut, Cuts in Block Grants for Local Gov and the State Use Tax

The economic news in the past couple of weeks has been relatively positive so that must mean it is time for another down to the wire battle in Washington to help restore pessimism! At the end of the month, temporary extensions to the payroll tax credit and extended unemployment benefits will expire. With unemployment high, both measures should be extended through the end of the year.

Morning Must Reads: State of The Union, Stimulus and Austerity Economics PA Style

Tonight President Obama will deliver his State of the Union Address to Congress. We are expecting the President to recommend an extension through the end of 2012 of extended unemployment insurance benefits and the payroll tax credit. It looks as though a major theme in the address — besides the catch phrase “built to last” — will be conventional policies aimed at reducing inequality, such as increased spending/tax credits for education and training.

Education and training are important and fruitful means of reducing inequality, but they fall well short of what's needed to reduce the degree of inequality we now face.  A more forceful step in the direction of reducing inequality would include raising the minimum wage and making it easier for workers to form and join unions. We don't expect to hear the President call for either of those changes.

The President will propose paying for his new initiatives with higher taxes on wealthy households. As with education and training, restoring some sense of fairness to the tax code is a laudable goal but longer-lasting reductions in inequality will only come from policies that allow the pre-tax wages of more Americans to rise as the size and wealth of our economy grows.

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